Can Cardiff’s ‘Boom’ Benefit the Wider Region?

The number of tower cranes and site hoardings dotted across Cardiff city centre is an indication that we are currently experiencing a ‘boom’.

Add to that the frequent sightings of a long-awaited fleet of new Fast Light Intercity and Regional Trains (FLIRTs) across the region, and it gives a sense that 2025 will be a year of change. However, whilst physical change is happening, there are major decisions and challenges in the year ahead which will influence whether the region truly capitalises on its current vibrancy.

In terms of shaping the future of development in Cardiff, 2025 will see the progression of the Replacement Cardiff Local Development Plan, which will guide development in the city until 2036. The Deposit Plan outlining the full details of the allocation of sites and policies is due to be published in January with examination in September. Key themes in the Plan are the level of housing growth needed to meet future population growth and, critically, how and where this is met.

Tackling the ‘Housing Crisis’ was a key election pledge in Westminster and the new UK Government has taken decisive steps in England to deliver. This includes increasing housing provision targets and seeking to reduce delay in planning decision making, including the prospect of removing councillors’ ability to make decisions on applications.

By contrast, Welsh national policy remains devoid of fixed targets on delivering housing, meaning sites are not coming forward and the need continues to grow.  In Cardiff, there are currently 8,000 people on the housing waiting list with over 400 new applications received each month. The recently confirmed £1 billion second Housing Partnership Programme between Cardiff Council and the Vale of Glamorgan Council, which will deliver 4,000 new homes over the next 10 years, is a hugely positive initiative, but many in the property industry feel that this issue requires a stronger lead from Welsh Government.

One potential route for driving delivery of change is a renewed focus on regional planning. Earlier this year, Cardiff Capital Region became a statutory body and now has regional responsibilities in areas including planning and transport. The region’s £1.2 billion City Deal has been the driving force behind several significant projects, including the Metro proposals. Cross local authority boundary powers are a key theme of the Westminster Government, who in England see the necessity to elevate to regional level strategically important decision making relating to planning and infrastructure investment, which is too often caught up in local politics.

Proposals for a ‘Devolution Revolution’ in England, offer a raft of new powers which will enable Mayors to drive economic growth, raise living standards and deliver better services with more direct roles in strategic planning, housing, transport and skills. Many within the development sector in Wales feel a similar approach to this is needed here and will be watching Cardiff Capital Region’s plans with interest.

Critically, a direct impact on Wales of the Westminster Government’s approach to delivering ‘change’ is the proposal to withdraw funding from Pan-Regional Partnerships, including Western Gateway, whose remit stretches from St David’s in Pembrokeshire to Swindon.

Western Gateway claims to have attracted over £100 million investment from the public and private sector since 2019. The potential withdrawal of £1 million a year funding from Central Government will significantly curtail its ability to realise the ambition of becoming the fastest growing area outside of London, perhaps focusing more attention on the Cardiff Capital Region to champion regional growth or the opportunity for regional mayors?

However, hope remains that early in 2025 we will see First Minister Eluned Morgan make a positive decision on the future of the Cardiff Parkway station project. Cardiff Council resolved to approve the proposals in early 2022, only for the Welsh Government to call the decision in for its determination. A conclusion was expected in April 2024 but is now looking likely that approval will be confirmed shortly with an estimated £5 billion economic uplift to the Welsh economy over a 20-year period, giving impetus to wider efforts to attract inward investment. Developments like these are key to the future of our capital city and our region.