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Latest Edition: Wales’ Economic Outlook in 2025


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Wales Sees Largest Decline in Employment


Wales saw the largest decline in employment with a 3.3% decrease in February, offsetting employment gains made over the last year.

Employment Hero’s SmartMatch Employment Report uses real-time data from 105,000 employees across small and medium-sized businesses with 1-500 employees in the UK.

Data from the end of February showed that employment shrunk by 0.4% across the month, following a slight growth of 0.2% in January.

Regionally, Wales saw the largest decline in employment with a 3.3% decrease in February, offsetting employment gains made over the last year. Scotland and The South of England experienced the highest employment growth in February, both growing 0.9%.

On average, employment growth has decreased by 0.3% every month since October, when an increase to employer National Insurance contributions was announced in the autumn Budget. These changes will see employers pay an additional £900 in annual taxes per employee at the median wage, said Employment Hero.

All age groups contributed to the month-on-month decline in employment, but those aged 18-24 were disproportionately impacted, with employment falling 1.8% for this group.

While the tax hikes are likely to be a contributing factor, said Employment Hero, the UK Government’s decision to eliminate the minimum wage for 18-20-year-olds is also a probable cause of the decline, it claimed.

From 1 April, employers will have to pay all adults aged 21 or over the National Living Wage of £12.25, which previously only applied to those aged 23 or over. The lower minimum wage for 21-22 year olds is being eliminated.

Kevin Fitzgerald, UK MD of Employment Hero, said:

“This 0.4% contraction in employment growth is particularly concerning given its disproportionate impact on younger workers. While employers will have to pay more for these roles, the bigger challenge is that younger employees often require more training and support. Rather than replacing them, many SMEs will simply absorb the extra workload themselves, as they can’t afford the additional strain.

 

“If this trend continues, we could see a much more challenging job market emerging in the months ahead, particularly for younger workers trying to get their foot on the career ladder. We are already nearing one million young people not in education or employment – this will only get worse.”



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