Wales’ Manufacturing Base is Vital to Our Defence

Vladimir Lenin, the revolutionary Russian politician, once said: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” It's hard to believe Lenin's words from over a century ago about the Bolshevik revolution are still relevant today.

It’s difficult to write any up-to-date article these days because world events are changing so fast. To be more specific, it’s difficult to keep up with what Donald Trump is doing.

What has President Trump done?

Since his return to the White House on January 20, 2025, President Trump has signed over 50 executive orders. These orders include withdrawing from the World Health Organisation (WHO), enacting high tariffs, curbing DEI programs, and officially renaming the Gulf of Mexico (although this won't affect what other countries call it). While these, and others, have sent shockwaves, it is what Vice President J. D. Vance did last month that has arguably caused the most international distress.

At the Munich Security Conference in early February, J.D. Vance delivered a scathing speech attacking Washington's allies, including Britain, while raising concerns about misinformation, disinformation, and free speech rights. Before this, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Europe should fully assume responsibility for its own defence. In Munich, J.D. Vance's speech reinforced this rhetoric, leading many to believe it marked a breaking point for transatlantic relations. The message to the U.K. and Europe was clear: prioritise defence and adapt to an increasingly isolated U.S., seeing the continent as an ideological adversary and economic competitor. Events since the Security Conference have only reinforced the message.

Can the UK fundamentally reshape its economy to focus on defence?

The U.K. plans to raise its defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, up from 2.3%. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that this increase equates to an additional £6 billion yearly defence spending. This increase aligns the U.K. with NATO expectations, but it comes at a time of fiscal constraint. Healthcare, education, and infrastructure must now compete with new defence commitments for public funding.

Nevertheless, a rise in military spending will probably be advantageous to the U.K.’s defence industry. Billions in government contracts are likely to go to major defence contractors like BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce in the next few years. This will impact not only the major defence contractors but also their extensive supply chains.

The impact on the Welsh economy

Darren Jones, a U.K. Treasury minister, recently visited Wales to consider preparedness of the Welsh economy to increase its output to satisfy this extra spending on defence. Welsh Government data shows aerospace, cyber, space, and defence sectors contribute roughly £4 billion annually to Wales' economy, supporting approximately 23,000 jobs. These jobs are largely concentrated in two areas—the Wrexham and Flintshire Investment Zone and the Cardiff Airport-St Athan Enterprise Zone.

Wrexham Industrial Estate, part of the Investment Zone, began as a Royal Ordnance factory during World War II. To minimise damage from air raids, the factory, which manufactured the explosive propellant cordite for shells, was built across a wide area. Now among Europe's largest, this industrial estate is home to hundreds of manufacturing and engineering businesses, from SMEs to multinationals.

St Athan was initially established as a Royal Air Force base in 1938. Until closing in 2007, this significant facility was crucial for the maintenance and repair of military aircraft. Since its designation as an enterprise zone in 2012, Cardiff Airport-St Athan Enterprise Zone has attracted high-tech aerospace, defence, and advanced manufacturing industries.

Manufacturing activities are vital during times of conflict because it directly supports a nation's military, economy, and defence effort. A country's manufacturing sector is crucial for producing essential military equipment and supplies, assembling tanks, aircraft, ammunition, and communication devices, which cannot be readily acquired through imports during time of conflict. The robust manufacturing base provides a steady flow of these essential equipment and technologies.

Let’s not give up hope

We are living in dangerous times. Never before in its 78-year history has the Doomsday Clock, which represents our closeness to global disaster, been set so close to midnight – just 89 seconds. Since 1947, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, founded by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and Manhattan Project scientists who created the first atomic weapons, has tracked global catastrophe with its Doomsday Clock. The world's leading scientists are gravely worried by existential risks posed by nuclear arms, climate change, bioweapons, and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence.

By moving the Doomsday Clock 1 second closer to midnight, to 89 seconds, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warn of an unacceptably high risk of global catastrophe. We're closer than ever to catastrophe.

Let's not abandon hope that the world can come together and celebrate our shared humanity. We all hope to leave a better world for our children and their descendants. The path forward is not simple, but Wales has the manufacturing base to support national security and work with others to find solutions to global problems.