Researchers at Aberystwyth University are leading an international project to help rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure through the development of a new geothermal energy plant, using advanced mathematical modelling to accelerate construction and strengthen the country’s long-term energy resilience.
The initiative brings together academic and industry experts from Wales, Ukraine and Poland to develop a pilot geothermal plant in Solotvyno, near Ukraine’s border with Romania.
With Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure placing significant pressure on Ukraine’s power system, the project aims to support the country’s recovery by developing more resilient, decentralised and sustainable sources of energy.
Led by mathematicians at Aberystwyth University, the research is based on the principle of rebuilding Ukraine’s energy system to a higher standard, rather than simply replacing damaged infrastructure.
The team is exploring how networks of smaller and medium-sized energy generation facilities could reduce dependence on centralised infrastructure, making energy supplies more difficult to disrupt while supporting the transition towards cleaner technologies.
A central challenge in developing geothermal energy is the uncertainty surrounding underground geological conditions, which can make projects expensive and time-consuming to deliver.
Geothermal developments typically require exploration periods of seven to eight years before construction can progress.
The Aberystwyth-led consortium is seeking to reduce this timeframe by at least two years through the development of sophisticated mathematical models capable of analysing rock properties at a microscopic level.
Researchers are using three-dimensional modelling techniques to better understand geological conditions, predict the behaviour of underground reservoirs and reduce the risks associated with geothermal development.
The project will also develop algorithms designed to forecast reservoir performance throughout the anticipated 30-year operating life of the plant.
By improving the accuracy of these predictions, the researchers hope to accelerate the deployment of geothermal technology and establish an approach that could be replicated in other parts of Ukraine and internationally.
Professor Gennady Mishuris from Aberystwyth University, who recently hosted a workshop bringing together the international project partners in Wales, said the work demonstrates how advanced scientific research can address major energy challenges.
“Our aim is to revolutionise how geothermal energy is explored and deployed, specifically focusing on the rapid recovery and modernisation of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with enhanced geothermal systems.
“By combining world-class mathematical modelling with cutting-edge geomechanics and industrial expertise, we are not just solving a technical problem, we are building a decentralised, resilient, and carbon-neutral future for a nation in need.
“The project is more than a technical endeavour: it is a commitment to sustainability, social inclusion, and international solidarity. Aberystwyth University is proud to be at the helm, proving that through collaborative innovation, we can turn geological uncertainty into a stable, green, and prosperous future.”
The project, Geothermal Ukraine – Making a Difference in Technology for Rapid Deployment, also involves South Wales-based Rockfield Software Ltd, Ukrainian gas producer JSC Ukrgasvydobuvannya, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Poland’s Oil and Gas Institute and Solotvyno Local Council.
The involvement of Rockfield Software highlights the contribution of Welsh technology businesses alongside university research, combining advanced software capabilities with specialist geological and engineering expertise.
Dr Martin Dutko from Rockfield Software said the complexity of the geology and limited availability of initial data had presented significant challenges.
“We’re delighted to take part in this challenging and exciting project. There was a limited amount of data available at the start and the geology is so complex. So, this is a difficult task to solve – we’re really pleased that with the help of our Ukrainian and Polish partners that made a great job in providing us with updated data allowing us to apply our sophisticated software to build the complete thermo-mechanical model.”
The international collaboration has also brought together decades of Ukrainian geological research with modern digital technologies, including physics-driven artificial intelligence systems.
Aleksei Karpenko from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv said the work had combined historical knowledge with advanced analytical techniques to create a comprehensive picture of the region’s geothermal resources.
“I am proud that the results we delivered with our INIG colleagues have enabled our international partners to develop a comprehensive model of the thermal resources available in the region.
“All the Ukrainian partners are deeply grateful for the support provided by the UK to make this work possible.”
The project could also have wider implications for geothermal energy development in Britain, where improved geological modelling and reduced exploration risks could help support future investment in low-carbon energy infrastructure.
For Aberystwyth University, the programme demonstrates the international application of Welsh research expertise, bringing together mathematics, engineering, digital innovation and industry collaboration to address a major global challenge.
The project is supported by the Innovate Ukraine programme and UK International Development.
