Growth in house prices in Wales is set to overtake the wider UK over the next five years, according to a report launched at this year’s Hugh James Housing Week.
The latest Welsh Housing Market Update, prepared by Savills, also highlights the pressure on housing delivery and the challenge of meeting Wales’ social housing target
House prices in Wales are forecast to rise by 21% by the end of 2031, outpacing the UK average forecast of 15.8%.
The report was presented at a Hugh James event on Tuesday 10 November, as part of Hugh James’ annual Housing Week. Under the theme ‘Building for Growth’, this year’s five-day programme is examining what organisations in the housing sector need in order to deliver sustainable growth amid increasing pressure on supply, communities, workforces and leadership teams.
Savills attributes Wales’s stronger price outlook partly to its relative affordability, which it says should help to offset higher interest rates for buyers. Welsh house prices currently stand at 71% of the UK average, a proportion forecast to reach 73% by the end of 2031.
Growth is expected to remain subdued in the short term. The report predicts prices will rise by 0.5% in 2027 as higher mortgage rates weigh on demand. It expects growth to accelerate from 2028 as interest rates fall and affordability improves.
The report also warns that the recent increase in housebuilding may be difficult to sustain. Although completions rose by 10% per year by the third quarter of 2026, they remained 12% below the estimated annual housing need. Planning consents were almost a third below need, while housing starts were 21% lower than completions, suggesting the pipeline of homes under construction is shrinking.
Affordable housing delivery reached a record 3,865 homes in 2025/26, 17% above the five-year average. However, net delivery would need to rise by 49% to meet the Welsh Government’s target of 20,000 social and intermediate rent homes by March 2030, and planned delivery for 2026/27 is still 19% below the annual level needed to meet that target.
Caroline O’Flaherty, Partner and Head of Social Housing at Hugh James, said:
“This report highlights both the opportunity and the scale of the challenge facing the housing sector in Wales. The forecast for house price growth is very encouraging, but the figures on supply show how much work there is still to do if we are to meet targets.
“Significant increases in delivery will be needed at a time when the pipeline of future development remains under pressure. Bringing leaders and decisionmakers from the sector together, in-person, to discuss what can help unlock that delivery is an important part of Hugh James Housing Week.”
Caroline Jones, Director at Savills, said:
“Our report points to a stronger five-year outlook for Welsh house prices than for the UK overall, but it also highlights real pressures on delivery with planning consents still below estimated need. HJ Housing Week provided a useful opportunity to discuss what these findings mean for the sector and bring together people with different perspectives on how Wales can deliver the homes it needs.”
Housing Week 2026 runs from 9–13 November. Content from the week will be available to view on the Hugh James YouTube channel from Friday 13 November. For more information on the programme, head to HJ Housing Week | Hugh James.
