Since publishing their 2018-based projections at a national level in October 2019, and at a local authority level in March 2020,  the Office for National Statistics has recently confirmed an error in the “processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England” which has resulted in the under-estimation of Wales’ net population by 2028 of some 65,000 people.

Where the original projections published in October 2019 indicated a decline in the Welsh population from 2025 onwards, the revised projections now show a growth in the Welsh population by some 2.7% up to 2028 and 3.7% up to 2043.

Welsh Government has been preparing its draft National Development Framework (NDF) since October 2018 based on 2018-based projections. With Strategic Development Plans and Local Development Plans required to be in conformity with the NDF, Nick Heard, senior planner at Savills, comments “Welsh Government will need to provide clarification as to how these corrected projections will be reflected into the NDF and how this could influence the strategy that the NDF, SDPs and LDPs beneath take.”

Further details on how the corrected population projections should be interpreted at a local authority level are to be published before the end of the month (June 2020) and will show a higher level of growth in the number of households compared to the projections published in March 2020. The size of a household varies between local authorities, and has declined dramatically across the board, but typically ranges from between 2.15 people and 2.40 people and so the underestimation of the number of households could be some 30,000 nationally homes up to 2028.

It was also announced this week that the NDF, initially due to be published in September 2020, has encountered a delay in its publication until February 2021 in light of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Nick adds

“This delay should be used as a real opportunity for the revised statistics to be fully understood and reflected through an increased housing need.”