Senedd 2026: What Do The Manifestos Tell Us?

With the Senedd election now firmly in the final stretch, one thing is already clear from the polling: Wales is heading for a deal‑making parliament. Under the new proportional system and current voting intention trends, the most plausible outcomes point to a hung Senedd where governing will depend on agreements across parties, not single‑party control.

That matters for small businesses because it tends to amplify the policies that multiple parties can live with – and it brings a sharper focus on reforms that can be written quickly into a Programme for Government.

From a small business perspective, the manifestos share a fairly consistent diagnosis: Wales has big ambitions, but the gap is delivery. The headline issues – NHS performance, cost pressures, and fragile local economies – loom large across the board. But when you strip away the campaign messaging, the most important content for SMEs is buried in the plumbing: the institutions that support growth, the cost base of running a firm, how public money is spent, and how easy it is to invest and expand.

The big shift is a renewed focus on how Wales organises economic development.

As I’ve written about previously, for me, the most significant development in this election is the renewed debate about how Wales organises economic development and business support. Plaid Cymru is explicit in its manifesto that it would establish a new National Development Agency to strengthen delivery and support business growth across Wales. That aligns closely with the case FSB Wales has made in our own manifesto: Wales too often has “support” in theory, but businesses experience it as fragmented, slow, and hard to navigate – and the next government needs to put small firms at the heart of policy and delivery.

Why does this matter? Because done well, a modern development‑agency approach can do three things SMEs care about: simplify the customer journey, coordinate support around mission-centred growth rather than programmes, and connect Welsh firms more effectively to procurement and export opportunities. Done badly, it becomes another reorganisation that creates activity without outcomes. The difference will be whether any new model comes with clear objectives, measurable success metrics, and a genuine “one‑front‑door” experience for firms.

The second striking point from the manifestos is how widely business rates reform now features. Plaid talks about rebalancing the system to support high streets and town‑centre sectors; Labour commits to a “root‑and‑branch” review; the Conservatives and Reform go further on cuts and exemptions for small firms and hospitality; the Liberal Democrats describe a freeze on rates and a lower hospitality and leisure rate and the Greens propose reform or replacement via a land‑value approach.

That spectrum tells you something important: parties disagree on mechanism, but they broadly agree the current system is part of the problem, particularly for town centres. In a Senedd where deals will be essential, this kind of shared diagnosis matters because it makes business rates reform one of the most “coalition‑proof” economic policies available.

Public procurement is increasingly being treated as an economic tool, not just an administrative function. Plaid is the most explicit, including a commitment to shift more public spend to Wales‑based suppliers; the Greens and Liberal Democrats also emphasise procurement that supports local businesses, SMEs and wider community benefit. This aligns strongly with the FSB Wales position that procurement should be designed so small firms can actually participate, through accessible contract design, clearer pipelines, and fairer bidding processes.

But there is a catch. Wales is already strengthening its procurement framework through the Social Partnership and Public Procurement approach, embedding “socially responsible procurement” expectations for public bodies. Done well, this can open doors for responsible SMEs and create more local supply chain opportunity. Done badly, it risks building compliance burdens that only the biggest suppliers can absorb – and that would be the opposite of what most parties say they want.

There are three areas where the manifestos are ambitious, but the delivery plan is often less clear for smaller businesses.

First, skills. Welsh Labour sets out major commitments on apprenticeships and retraining, and other parties also talk about aligning skills with real jobs. The risk is familiar: big national targets can drift toward large employers unless SMEs are explicitly designed in, with support to navigate admin, regional fit, and wraparound help for smaller firms.

Second, regulatory reform. Reform makes clear intentions about reviewing and removing regulation, while other parties talk about streamlining and cutting bureaucracy. For business, the prize isn’t deregulation for its own sake – it’s predictability, proportionality, and speed, especially in planning and consenting. The wrong kind of reform creates churn and uncertainty; the right kind removes duplication and makes investment easier.

Third, conditionality. Where policy links support to fair work, social value reporting, or wider requirements, there’s a real risk that smaller businesses – the very firms we need to grow – are unintentionally excluded at the first hurdle. The goal should be to help firms progress, not to shut them out before they’ve had the chance to scale.

FSB Wales’ analysis suggests we’ve secured real traction on the direction of travel: stronger economic development capability, business rates reform becoming unavoidable, and procurement and local supply chains moving to the centre of the debate. But the hard work starts after polling day. In a hung Senedd, the real influence happens in the Programme for Government and the first budget – and that’s where we’ll need to be relentless on one test: does this policy make it easier for small businesses to invest, recruit, and win work – or harder?

If we get that right, the next Senedd term really can become Wales’ “small business term”.