The percentage of Welsh small businesses citing barriers holding their business back from growing has risen from 72% to 77% in the last year.
The impact of overseas conflict on energy and fuel prices in Wales (38%) is now a serious concern for one in three Welsh enterprises – and higher than the national average of 32%.
The findings from Novuna Business Finance suggest that current geo-political uncertainty is dominating the disruption felt by Welsh small business owners this spring, proving to be far more significant than local or immediate market challenges.
The most significant barriers to growth cited included: macro-economic uncertainty (47%), rising oil prices (38%) and, as a consequence of this, the impact on higher running costs (30%). In contrast, the cost of skilled labour (26%), volatile cashflow (20%), high bank charges (12%), volatile exchange rates (7%), digital proficiency (6%) and having out-dated equipment (6%) emerged as relatively smaller concerns.
Around the UK, small business in geographical extremes were far more likely to be impacted by rising energy price rises. Alongside the Welsh (38%), small business owners in Scotland (40%), and the South West of England (42%) were also significantly more likely than the national average (32%) to say the impact of overseas conflicts on energy and fuel prices in the UK was a barrier holding their business back from growing.
By industry sector, small businesses in Transport, Retail and Manufacturing were most likely to say that rising energy and fuel prices were material barriers holding back business growth.
- Transport & distribution -58%
- Retail – 45%
- Manufacturing – 41%
- Hospitality – 36%
- Construction – 35%
- Agriculture – 35%
The general picture beyond oil
- This quarter, small businesses in the Manufacturing (94%), Retail (95%) and Transport/Distribution (90%) sectors are most likely to cite one or more barriers holding back planned business growth.
- In Agriculture, the percentage of small businesses bemoaning barriers to growth has hit a four-year peak (86%).
- In Construction, Retail and Media, growth barriers are at their highest level since 2020.
- Across six UK regions, there has been a year-on-year rise on the percentage of small businesses citing factors holding back growth – and in London, growth barriers hit a six-year peak (88%).
Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance, said:
“Some may assume that conflict in the Gulf is a far-away issue that only affects governments and big businesses. Our findings show how quickly and how deeply Welsh small businesses have felt the impact of rising energy and fuel prices in the UK. Businesses that rely on heavy equipment and transport seem to have felt the impact most significantly – as have those enterprises based in extreme points of the UK, businesses that may have bigger transport and shipping costs.
“Overall, the fact four in five enterprises cite factors that are holding back business growth is significant. Actual growth forecasts each quarter have been relatively static for some time. Whilst the vast majority of enterprises started the year working on new initiatives to secure growth, this is counter-balanced by the very high number that are trying to overcome obstacles and external market pressures. Our tracking suggests that if we want to see a major upturn in Welsh small business growth forecasts for the summer and autumn months, it is the barriers that need to be tackled first – and urgently. Today's figures on barriers to growth give us an early indication of what to expect from actual growth forecasts for the months ahead.”
