Wales has an unprecedented £46.8 billion investment opportunity from renewable energy by 2035 which could drive long-term economic growth, create thousands of jobs, and invigorate communities.
That’s according to preliminary research conducted by BiGGAR Economics, which was unveiled for the first time at Future Energy Wales 2024 at the ICC in Newport. Commissioned by RenewableUK Cymru in collaboration with Solar Energy UK and Marine Energy Wales, it maps out the potential economic impact of hitting Wales’s renewable energy targets for onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, and tidal power.
The analysis projects an annual average investment of almost £4 billion, peaking at £7 billion in 2028. Offshore wind, forecasted to account for £32.4 billion of this total, could become the backbone of Welsh economic growth by 2035, it says. For Wales to secure thousands of new, well-paid jobs and capture the maximum local investment, there is urgent need for an effective industrial strategy and port infrastructure upgrades.
While offshore wind promises long-term gains, onshore wind represents Wales’s fastest path to growth. A projected £4.5 billion in investment could enable onshore wind capacity to reach just over 3 GW by 2035, provided planning and grid capacity issues are swiftly addressed.
The recently released NESO 2030 Clean Power report outlines ambitious plans for grid reform to accelerate renewable energy delivery across the UK. Yet, Wales’s progress remains constrained by immediate resource shortages in planning, says RenewableUK Cymru.
Modelling data from its 2024 Welsh wind power report shows interest in developing renewable energy in Wales has surged, with the Welsh pipeline of projects up by 18% this year – from 9GW in 2023 to more than 10.5GW in November 2024. The growth is largely driven by new onshore wind projects. However, with delays in consenting and a constrained grid network, at the current rate of deployment, the Welsh wind portfolio is forecast to make up only 5% of the UK's total capacity by 2035—lagging far behind Scotland’s ambitious 64 GW projection, it warns.
Jess Hooper, RenewableUK Cymru Director, said:
“Wales stands at the threshold of a historic opportunity. By harnessing this renewable investment potential, we can secure Welsh jobs and build a secure, long-term local economy across all parts of the country.
“But to channel this investment into tangible progress, we need stronger, immediate support from both the UK and Welsh governments.
“That is why we are calling for a coordinated, four-nations approach to accelerate wind deployment and grid upgrades. With strategic investment in grid capacity and planning, Wales can place wind energy at the heart of its clean energy future—achieving impactful results for our climate, economy, and communities.”
Nikki Keddie, BiGGAR Economics Director, said:
“The size of the renewables opportunity in Wales is immense. To put it into perspective, the £47 billion private investment needed to meet our targets is equivalent to the cost of building 208 Principality Stadiums.
“Renewables project investment and delivery will bring Wales better energy security, increased employment, industrial expansion and rural economic development.
“To maximize the economic benefits of these projects for local businesses and communities, it will be essential to remove barriers to delivery and boost the opportunities for them to capture and retain value. We are looking forward to working on the next phase of this report, where we will quantify the potential share of the opportunity Wales can secure.”
