The Government Office for Science has developed the Futures Toolkit – a practical guide with 12 tools that help people explore “what might happen” and plan for it.
The tools include methods including Horizon Scanning (spotting early signs of change), Scenarios (imagining different future worlds), and Policy Stress-Testing (exploring whether a policy would work under different conditions). The toolkit also offers “pathways” – step-by-step combinations of tools for specific goals, such as creating a shared vision or testing policy options quickly. It encourages involving diverse voices, challenging assumptions, and thinking beyond the short term.
The UK Government said that using these tools helps policymakers make smarter, more resilient decisions. Instead of being caught off guard by sudden changes, they can prepare for a range of possible futures.
For example, the Food Standards Agency used the toolkit’s Delphi method (a tool for gathering expert opinions anonymously to reach consensus and measure diversity of views) to gather expert views on how the UK food system might change over the next 10 years. This helped shape their research priorities.
Other organisations have used the toolkit to plan for issues including climate change, technology and the economy. The UK Government said the main benefit is better long-term planning, which means policies are more likely to succeed even when the world changes in unexpected ways.
Find out more about the Futures Toolkit here.
