House prices in Wales are expected to grow by 18.2 per cent over the next five years – making it one of the fastest growing parts of the UK, according to new research by Savills.
The predicted figures show that the value of a home in the region will increase by more than £38,000 on average from £212,912 to £251,662 by 2026.
The forecasted rate of growth for Wales is significantly higher than the UK average of 13.1 per cent. Only the North West, Yorkshire and Humber regions are expected to see slightly more of a rise at 18.8 per cent to 2026.
The strongest growth will be seen over the next two years, with prices expected to increase by an average 4 per cent annually.
The price of a home at the higher end of the market, known as the prime market – broadly the top five to 10 per cent by value – will increase by an average of 19.3 per cent over the 5 year period outside of London.
Daniel Rees is head of Savills residential sales team in Cardiff and markets property across South and West Wales. He said that while there will be less urgency in the market next year, demand for property looks set to continue.
‘After such an intense period and without the imperative of a stamp duty holiday, there is likely to be less urgency from 2022,’ he said. ‘However, Wales will continue to experience the strong house price growth it has seen over the last decade, as the market ‘catches up’ with that of the rest of the UK.
‘Wales is still a comparatively affordable place to live and has become increasingly desirable, especially in the context of changing working patterns since the start of the pandemic. The pandemic also prompted many people to reconsider their lifestyles, which in turn saw a wave of national and international buyers looking to make a move into Wales, more often than not to be closer to family or their childhood home. These factors will continue to underpin demand over the coming years.’
| Current Average (Yr to Jul-21) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 5-year
change |
Average value in 5 years (f) | |
| North West | £229,572 | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 18.8% | £272,732 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | £224,257 | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 18.8% | £266,417 |
| Wales | £212,912 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 18.2% | £251,662 |
| North East | £181,001 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 17.6% | £212,857 |
| East Midlands | £252,943 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 15.9% | £293,160 |
| West Midlands | £264,697 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 15.9% | £306,784 |
| Scotland | £198,998 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 15.9% | £230,639 |
| South West | £341,971 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 13.1% | £386,769 |
| South East | £439,813 | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 10.4% | £485,553 |
| East of England | £380,685 | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 10.4% | £420,276 |
| London | £676,124 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 5.6% | £713,987 |
| UK | £327,838 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 13.1% | £370,785 |
Source: Savills Research, ONS
Table 3: Prime residential forecasts*
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 5-year | |
| Prime central London | +8.0% | +4.0% | +2.0% | +4.0% | +4.0% | +23.9% |
| Outer prime London | +4.0% | +3.0% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +13.7% |
| UK prime regional average | +4.0% | +3.5% | +3.0% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +19.3% |
Source: Savills Research
* Savills forecasts relate to the second-hand or resale market. The new-build market may perform differently.
