Climate change is hitting households this Easter, with lamb prices up as a direct result of extreme weather hitting UK farming. New analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) finds that successive climate shocks since 2022 have pushed lamb prices up by between 7% to 21% each time.
On Sunday, when lamb takes centre stage for many families, a typical 2kg leg – the traditional Easter roast – has carried a climate premium every year since 2023. For the UK’s 2.6 million households who eat lamb regularly, this has added up to £168 in extra costs over the past three years.
Chris Jaccarini, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said:
“As families and communities sit down to celebrate this Easter, the cost of climate change is hitting home. Lamb prices are through the roof after droughts, extreme heat and heavy rainfall have hit farmers' costs of production, weakening grass growth and not allowing the depleted hay stores they depend on time to recover.
“With beef and dairy prices up after similar extreme weather impacts on production, it is clear that climate change now poses a major and worsening challenge for livestock farmers. As the current oil price shock threatens to bring yet another round of food price inflation, without faster progress towards net zero to bring balance back to our climate, as well as more investment in the resilience of our farmers, the affordability of food is worryingly exposed to these worsening shocks.”
The analysis uses Met Office data to model the impact of the drought and extreme heat in 2022, the record-breaking rainfall in October-March 2023/24 and the hottest spring and summer ever in the UK in 2025. It combines this with market data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board to model the impact of extreme weather events on farmgate prices.
The drought in 2022 was found to increase these prices by 11%, the wet winter of 2023/24 by 25% and recent drought in 2025 by 13%. This was mainly as a function of the impact on grass growth as a result of these weather extremes. The evidence is clear that all these events were made worse by climate change .
These farmgate prices are assumed to transmit to consumer prices, with the wet winter of 2023/2024 the most significant recent climate shock. It added an extra £5 (+17.5%) to the price of a lamb roast at Easter 2024, and £7 (+21%) to the price at Easter 2025. Even in a temperate, high-income country with a well-developed agricultural sector, such events can leave surprisingly persistent price effects.
Jack Cockburn, a sheep farmer from Ceredigion in Wales said:
“Here in West Wales, extreme weather is our biggest challenge. We've had two very wet winters in a row, which has meant poor grass growth due to waterlogged soils and low light levels with the very cloudy conditions. This has meant lambs going to the abattoir at lighter weights and less meat per animal. The problems are different for farmers across the country. Here in Wales, we're suffering from wet weather, whereas in other parts of the UK long, hot dry spells in summer are the biggest issue.
“To mitigate this, we now keep fewer sheep as that makes it easier to maintain good-quality pasture by adopting nature-friendly grazing practices and rotating them around. We aim to keep our input costs as low as possible to protect us against economic shocks, particularly the volatility of energy prices. To ensure a consistent food supply, the Government needs to invest heavily in nature-friendly farming practices and improving homegrown production, in fruit and vegetables as well as meat. We cannot just keep increasing our reliance for food imports on countries worse hit by climate change than we are.”
Sofie Jenkinson, Co-Director of Round Our Way, an organisation that supports people impacted by climate change in the UK said:
“We regularly speak to people who are noticing and struggling with the rising costs of food and scarcity of produce – from small businesses and pubs through to families and farmers themselves, the extreme weather we are seeing in the UK is impacting dinner plates across the country.
“This is happening day-to-day, week-to-week for families as essentials are hit but also affecting moments of celebration too, where families get together, like Easter and Christmas before it. And for farmers we are seeing not just extremes of weather but the erratic nature of our weather impacting produce and farmers’ businesses – with crops rotting in the ground on one extreme, and animals suffering heat stress on the other. We need to see further political action in not just halting the impacts of climate change but also in adapting to those that are impacting people in the here and now.”
It’s not just lamb prices that shoppers will be noticing this Easter. The price of easter eggs has risen by two thirds in just three years, as heavy rainfall, droughts, and humid heatwaves have battered cocoa production in West Africa.
