Over the past few years the world has entered a period of continuous strategic competition. The shift is often described as “new”, but its roots stretch back some time. Two broad blocs have emerged: the Eurasian autocrats – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea – and the maritime democracies, including the UK, the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, with India likely to move in that direction over the next few years.

Between these groupings are more than 150 states that adjust their position depending on their interests.

Most of the tension sits in the zones where these blocs interact. That is where we see proxy warfare, incursions, maritime confrontations and other forms of pressure. Alongside this is what I call muscular nationalism. This is not confined to autocratic states; democracies too are becoming more assertive in protecting what they see as their interests. The combined effect is a world in which confrontation is constant, even if outright conflict does not break out.

Space has become a contested domain, not just in Earth’s orbit but across the whole area between our atmosphere and the moon. The seabed is increasingly targeted, especially cables and offshore installations. And closer to home, the tools of disruption include drones, cyber attacks and interference with undersea infrastructure.

We are not in peacetime; we are in deterrent time. Our opponents push at the boundaries of what is tolerable without formally crossing the line into war.

Technology is transforming the nature of conflict. Within five years, almost everything on the surface of the planet will be detectable through physical signatures, infrared or data emissions. Systems – rather than the platforms they sit on – will become the decisive element. The pace of innovation seen in Ukraine shows how quickly new solutions can be developed, refined and used. Spiral development will replace long, rigid procurement cycles.

This creates opportunities for those who can think and move quickly. Wales is recognised for its strength in unmanned aerial systems and related technologies – but the opportunity is broader than that. Businesses that may not see themselves as defence companies may still have something valuable to offer.

Dual-use capability is increasingly important. A firm making radiators, filters, shielding materials or data-related components may find that its existing products can meet defence needs with limited adaptation.

Counter-drone technology is one example. As drones become ubiquitous, the ability to counter them becomes essential. Electronic warfare, infrared shielding, signature reduction materials and a host of other solutions will be required. Some of these can be produced by firms that have never considered defence before. Innovation does not always require entirely new products; it often requires fresh thinking about how existing capabilities can be applied.

The most important element is the ability to tell a clear story about what solution you offer and why it matters in the future landscape. Businesses need to think not just about today’s threats but about the next step: the countermeasure, and then the counter to the countermeasure. That mindset is what gives an advantage, and it is something that Wales can embrace.

There is also a wider point about investment. Defence should be regarded as an ESG enabler. If the security of our country and our allies is not a priority, then something is missing from the agenda. Making defence investment more acceptable is part of strengthening our resilience in a world that has changed quickly and will continue to change.

For Wales, the opportunity is clear. There is capability, ingenuity and a developing ecosystem that can support these needs. The challenge now is to approach this with confidence, understand where the opportunities lie and be willing to contribute to a landscape that demands both innovation and clarity of purpose.

Rear Admiral Dr Chris Parry CBE talks about this and more in the Business in Focus From Startup to Scaleup podcast. Listen here.