GUEST COLUMN:
Dr Victoria Winckler
Director
Bevan Foundation
The Welsh Parliament, or Senedd Cymru, is about to undergo radical changes. They will have big implications for anyone who might want to speak to their Senedd member about a problem, have their say about a new law, or give their views to a Senedd Committee inquiry, as well as the wider electorate.
With just 18 months until the changes take place, a recent Bevan Foundation webinar brought together experts to tease out the issues. They highlighted the key changes that are already in train, as well as others still to be finalised. Together they will transform what happens in May 2026, and how businesses and voters relate to their elected representatives.
So what do you need to know?
1.There will be more Senedd members
Probably the best known of the changes is that the number of Senedd members will increase from 60 to 96. The extra members ought to have more opportunity to specialise in specific topics of interest, and be better able to hold the Welsh Government to account because they will, to put it simply, be better informed. That said, if your organisation or business wants to engage with politicians, you will probably need to target your efforts.
2.There will be lots of new faces
As well as the 36 new politicians coming on board as a result of the expansion of the Senedd, quite a few existing politicians are likely to stand down. Some, such as former First Minister Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething have already said that they will not seek re-election – there are likely to be several more. New faces could mean people with a wider range of backgrounds, including people with business experience. Many organisations may want to brief the newbies on the many issues they will face.
3.You will have six Senedd members in your area
The upcoming changes mean that there will be six Senedd members for each constituency. Your Senedd members are likely to be from several different political parties, because they will be chosen using proportional representation rather than first past the post. While this gives more choice over who to contact about a local issue, it may also be confusing for the public who are more familiar with being represented by a single person.
4.Your constituency will be massive
New constituencies were used in the 2024 General Election, and will be ‘paired’ for the 2026 Senedd election in 16 super-constituencies. In urban areas, the new constituencies have a fairly small footprint, such as Cardiff South, West and Penarth, or Swansea West and Gower. Elsewhere, they are massive. The Brecon, Radnor, Neath and Swansea East constituency runs from Swansea in the south west to Presteigne in the north to Talybont on Usk in the east!
5.You will vote for a party not a person
Instead of deciding to vote for Ms X because she was helpful or Mr Y because you agree with his views, you will instead have just one vote and that will be for a political party. And even if you vote for a party because you like one of their candidates, there is no guarantee that he or she will actually win a seat. Instead, seats will be allocated to candidates depending on their order on a list, with those towards the bottom of the list having little or no chance of getting one.
6.Expect a coalition government
Predicting the outcome of an election is a fool’s game. Nevertheless, the Senedd electoral system makes it very difficult for one party to win an outright majority. Quite what kind of arrangement would be needed for form a government, and which parties might come together, remains to be seen. But organisations and businesses who are thinking about what they would like a future government to do should be prepared to work with several different parties.
7.More change is on the way
The new super-constituencies and electoral arrangements are only for the 2026 election. After this date, they will be reviewed and if necessary new arrangements put in place for 2030. A cynic might ask if people elected via a potentially flawed system will have an incentive to change it and possibly risk losing their seat in four years’ time.
Some of these changes are controversial, and in my view there has not been enough public debate about reforms that affect who we vote for, how we vote for them and how they represent us. A healthy democracy depends on people understanding how their vote can make a difference.
