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Lockdown Restrictions Not Hampering Buyer Demand in Wales

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Wales’ property market shows local lockdowns are not hampering buyer demand according to property market forecast tool, PropCast, bringing confidence to local home owners who are unsure about whether to put their homes on the market.

Combined with in depth virtual tours and the ability to conduct physical viewings safely, this sustained momentum has been fuelled by various factors including increased buyer activity, limited availability of good quality stock, pent up demand and the Welsh Government’s stamp duty holiday allowance for homeowners purchasing primary residences up to the value of £250,000.

Analysing the performance of property sales across Wales’ postcode districts to identify which are the strongest and weakest markets, the free online tool has revealed half of postcode districts are expected to see house price growth over the next few months despite extra restrictions being implemented.

The top ten postcode districts where prices are expected to rise are as follows:

Rank Postcode
#1 LL39
#2 LL47
#3 SA16
#4 LL38
#5 SA1
#6 CF43
#7 CF47
#8 LL72
#9 LL26
#10 SA19

Six postcode districts are expected to see prices drop, whilst the remaining are expected to remain static as there has been no change in buyer demand.

Price drops are expected in:

Rank Postcode
#1 LL51
#2 LL73
#3 SA39
#4 LL71
#5 SA47
#6 LL44

Meanwhile, PropCast has also revealed how many postcode districts are in a sellers’ (hot) market or a buyers’ (cold) market, before naming the ten best and worst locations to be selling a home. By counting the number of properties for sale and calculating the percentage of those under offer or subject to contract – portrayed as a temperature recording – PropCast has found 87% of postcode districts have a market heat temperature of at least 35°, indicating they are in a sellers’ market. This is when there are more buyers than properties for sale, placing the balance of power in favour of home sellers.

October figures revealed postcode district LL45 recorded the hottest market heat temperature at 74°, meaning 74% of homes in each location currently for sale are under offer. Local homeowners here are therefore in the best-selling position to be selling a home.

The top ten hottest postcode districts in Wales are:

Rank Postcode Temperature
#1 LL45 74°
#2 CF38 71°
#3 SA16 71°
#4 CF81 68°
#5 LL25 67°
#6 CF82 66°
#7 CF44 65°
#8 CF46 65°
#9 CF47 65°
#10 LL38 65°

Meanwhile, just 13% are in a buyers’ market, and in a much harder position to be selling their home.

The top ten coldest postcode districts are:

Rank Postcode Temperature
#1 SA36 11°
#2 LL73 20°
#3 LL63 23°
#4 LL78 23°
#5 LL61 24°
#6 LD7 27°
#7 LL44 27°
#8 LL51 27°
#9 LL71 28°
#10 LD6 29°

Gavin Brazg, Founder of PropCast comments:

“Wales’ housing market has had its fair share of Covid-19 challenges, with a full national lockdown earlier this year bringing property viewings to a complete standstill, followed by recent localised restrictions. However, it is clear to see that the release of pent-up demand once physical viewings were once again possible, has continued throughout the summer and into autumn. This is likely to be because agents launched virtual property tours which helped to sustain buyer interest during lockdown, and now that the housing market remains open, albeit with social distancing guidelines in place, buyers have not been deterred. In fact, evidence suggests the opposite is almost true, with buyers who have previously viewed virtually treating the physical viewing as a second viewing, and consequently offering sooner in the process than they would have done previously.

“Although many postcode districts do retain the upper hand, sellers still need to position their asking price competitively against other similar properties for sale if you want to attract multiple offers and achieve the best possible price. Ensure your estate agent is implementing the best selling strategy for your local market. Meanwhile buyers currently on the fence about buying in these areas should get their offers in as soon as possible.

“For those living in postcode district expected to see price falls or in a buyers’ market, try not to be too down heartened. The best way for sellers to strengthen their position in a falling market is to price conservatively from the start and choose a local, trusted estate agent who truly knows the market and how best to position your home within it for a fast sale. Meanwhile, this does mark the perfect time for buyers to swoop in knowing they have the upper hand in negotiations and bag themselves a bargain so if you are selling in one of these areas, don’t forget you could be making a saving when purchasing your next home.”

PropCast™ measures buyer demand levels across England & Wales which helps tell sellers whether their home will be easy to sell or not, and if they are able to be ambitious with their asking prices. Because buyer demand (relative to the available stock of properties) is a primary driver of house prices rising or falling, there is a strong correlation in weak markets between falls in buyer demand leading to a fall in house prices, and for rises in buyer demand to lead to house price increases.