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Growth is Stalling Amid Manufacturing Slowdown

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South Wales Chamber of Commerce CEO Heather Myers comments on

the British Chambers of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic Survey, which

shows that growth is stalling amid a manufacturing slow down.


The British Chambers of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic Survey  the largest private sector survey of business sentiment and a leading indicator of UK GDP growth, closely watched by policymakers including the Bank of England – finds that underlying economic conditions remained stagnant in the second quarter of 2019.

  • The balance of manufacturing firms reporting improved domestic orders at 7-year low
  • Modest pick-up in service sector activity in Q2 insufficient to offset significant drops in Q1
  • Price pressures for services firms and manufacturers fall to their lowest level since 2016

These survey results are a clear tell on what direction the Welsh and UK economies are going in as we head into Summer.

With the uncertainly around Brexit still looming over Welsh businesses, it is evident that this is already having an impact on trade, especially within the manufacturing sector.

Being mindful of these figures, we are calling on both UK and Welsh Government to ensure all upcoming decisions do not create barriers for business, that add complexity and inhibit growth.

It is vital that Welsh business feels supported and encouraged to trade, so that the Welsh and UK economies do not stagnate, and that we retain skilled people and continue to be nimble and agile to respond to change and uncertainty.

The British Chambers of Commerce continue to be the champion for this, and the South Wales Chamber of Commerce makes sure the issues affecting Welsh Businesses are heard loud and clear. It has never been more important to make your voice heard.

The latest results from the survey of over 6,800 businesses – employing around 1.2 million people – points to the impact that relentless Brexit uncertainty, rising business costs and tougher global trading conditions are having on the UK economy, with service sector output subdued and indicators of manufacturing activity deteriorating.

In the manufacturing sector, the balance of firms reporting growth in domestic sales fell for the third successive quarter and is now at its weakest since Q2 2016. The balance of firms reporting an increase in export sales also dipped to a three-year low. The balance of firms reporting an increase in domestic orders was at its weakest since Q4 2012, while the corresponding balance for export orders was at its lowest in four years.

The services sector saw a slight increase in the balance of companies reporting higher domestic sales and orders, as well as export sales and orders. However, the uptick in activity was not enough to outweigh the significant drop in these indicators in the first quarter ahead of the original Brexit deadline in March and so all remain very weak by historical standards.

The balance of firms expecting prices to rise has fallen to its lowest level in three years across both sectors, with the majority anticipating no change in their prices. Although the balance of firms reporting improved cash flow picked up in the quarter, it remains low by historic standards, which is concerning as cashflow is a key indicator of financial health.

With growth in the UK economy subdued, and the evidence suggesting that business investment and decision-making are in limbo ahead of the October 31st Brexit deadline, the focus must be on avoiding a messy and disorderly exit from the EU and removing barriers to growth in the domestic environment. The leading business group is calling on the Prime Ministerial candidates to outline their plans for addressing the high cumulative costs of doing business, delivering major infrastructure projects, and making the skills system work for business.

More About Heather Myers

Heather Myers has been CEO of the South and Mid Wales Chambers of Commerce since November 2016. Her appointment came after a four-year tenure as the CEO of one of Wales' best loved events, the Abergavenny Food Festival.

With 30 years’ experience of working in the public and private sector and running her own business, Heather has a strong understanding of businesses in a number of different sectors. She is experienced in handling challenges like recruitment, the development of skilled staff, finance, sales and marketing.

Her mission is to ensure that Wales is not only seen as being ‘open for business’, but as somewhere that businesses can thrive and be successful, both domestically and internationally. For her it’s  all about having the right connections, profile and resources and that’s what the Chamber does best.

Named as being one of most influential business voices in Wales, Heather has a strong focus on supporting and listening to the practical day-to-day needs of business; to enable the South and Mid Wales Chambers of Commerce to provide clarity; to be the strong articulate and independent business voice for SME's in Wales.

Heather is also keen to point out that the South Wales Chamber is the only Accredited British Chamber of Commerce based in Wales. It is the "go-to" provider for international advice and exporting trading, training and documentation. This creates one of the most powerful UK and global membership organisations, from right here in Wales. 

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