Plans to more than double onshore wind capacity in England and Wales by 2030 face a major grid challenge, with only around half of the additional UK capacity required to meet government targets currently holding connection offers.
New analysis published by RenewableUK highlights the gap between the UK’s ambitions for one of its cheapest sources of new electricity and the infrastructure required to bring new projects online.
The UK Government is targeting 29GW of operational onshore wind by 2030, up from 16.4GW currently.
Within England and Wales, the ambition is to increase capacity from 4.2GW to 8.6GW over the same period.
However, analysis by Aurora Energy Research shows that projects representing only around half of the additional capacity required across the UK currently have grid connection offers.
Projects totalling 10.4GW have offers in Scotland, with just 2.6GW in England and Wales.
The figures come as RenewableUK argues that accelerating onshore wind deployment could have significant implications for both energy costs and regional economies.
Its analysis estimates that reaching 29GW of onshore wind capacity could save UK billpayers £3 billion annually compared with generating the same amount of electricity from new gas-fired power stations.
Separate research by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that wholesale electricity prices would have been 31% higher in 2025 without wind generation if the UK had instead relied on more expensive gas.
RenewableUK also estimates that achieving the 2030 target could generate almost £500 million annually for communities hosting projects.
This includes an estimated £348 million through business and property rates and £145 million a year through long-term community benefit funds.
These funds can be directed towards locally determined priorities including community facilities, environmental projects, skills and training, tackling fuel poverty and supporting rural communities.
The industry is also becoming a growing source of employment.
Around 15,000 people currently work in UK onshore wind, with this forecast to increase to approximately 17,500 by 2030.
RenewableUK estimates that around 70% of the lifecycle expenditure associated with onshore wind projects already takes place within the UK, including construction and ongoing operations.
Expanding the domestic supply chain further could generate as much as £56 billion in additional economic value by 2050, according to research commissioned by the industry body.
With grid capacity presenting a constraint on entirely new developments, attention is also turning to extracting more electricity from sites already in operation.
Replacing older turbines with newer and more powerful technology – known as repowering – could increase capacity at existing wind farms by around a third on average.
RenewableUK estimates that repowering and extending the operational life of existing projects could contribute another 659MW towards the 2030 target, rising to 2.1GW by 2035 and 7.7GW by 2040.
Existing sites have the advantage of established grid infrastructure, proven wind resources and relationships between developers and surrounding communities.
There also appears to be significant public support for the approach.
Polling by Copper Consultancy found 70% of respondents support replacing smaller existing turbines with larger models capable of producing more electricity. Three-quarters of those surveyed live in or near an area that already hosts onshore wind farms.
RenewableUK CEO Tara Singh said:
“Hitting the UK’s onshore wind target by 2030, which will bring billions in benefits to all parts of the country, can only be achieved if we can get new projects connected to the grid faster and enable older turbines to be replaced by much more powerful new ones, which enjoys a high level of public support.
“As onshore wind is one of our cheapest forms of new power, and one of the fastest to build, this will cut bills and strengthen the UK’s energy security by delivering more homegrown power at the lowest cost.”
The challenge is particularly significant for England and Wales, where government ambitions require operational capacity to more than double over the next four years.
UK Energy Minister Michael Shanks said onshore wind would have an important role in reducing the country’s exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets.
He said:
“Onshore wind is a vital part of how we bring down energy bills and reduce our exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. It’s also an industrial opportunity creating good jobs across the country.
“That’s why we’ve lifted the ban on onshore wind in England, backed new projects across GB and consulted on how we make community benefits work even better for local people.”
Manufacturers are also watching the development of renewable generation closely because of the relationship between energy costs and industrial competitiveness.
Make UK’s Director of Policy & Public Affairs Verity Davidge said:
“Energy costs remain our members’ primary concern, but they can see how important reaching net zero is in reducing those costs.
“The country can deliver on energy security and drive growth by committing to building out necessary renewable capacity.”
Scotland remains the UK’s largest onshore wind market, with 10.7GW of operational capacity and an ambition to reach 20GW by 2030.
Scottish Renewables CEO Angela Hepworth said achieving further growth would require planning, grid connections, transmission charging and routes to market to work together.
The figures underline a wider challenge facing Britain’s energy transition: generating capacity can only expand as quickly as the infrastructure connecting projects to the electricity system allows.
With four years remaining until the 2030 target, speeding up grid connections and increasing output from existing wind farms could therefore prove as important as securing investment in new projects.
