As the climate summit turned to the themes of gender, science and innovation on Tuesday, new research claims that promises made at COP will be for nothing in the long-term fight to keep global temperatures manageable.
Devastating levels of atmospheric warming are likely by the end of this century, irrespective of the COP26 pledges to reduce emissions in the short term.
That grim prediction was published on Tuesday by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the world’s most respected climate analysis organisation. CAT’s assessment – claims the temperature increase will go above 2.4C by the end of this century, based on countries’ short-term goals as laid out so far at COP26.
Global warming above that level would see much more extreme weather – sea-level rises, drought, floods, and catastrophic heatwaves, causing devastation to millions of people in the most vulnerable parts of the world.
Responding to the report, executive director of Greenpeace International, Jennifer Morgan, said: “This new calculation is like a telescope trained on an asteroid heading for Earth. It’s a devastating report.
“We have until the weekend to turn this thing around. That means countries agreeing how they’re going come back next year and every year after that, until the gap to 1.5C is closed. The ministers shouldn’t leave this city until they’ve nailed that.”
In 2015, the Paris climate agreement, saw nations come together committing to limiting global temperature increases to “well below” 2C. Getting the same nations to agree a limit of 1.5C has always been seen as the summit’s major target, and if successful, its major achievement.
But the signs on Thursday are that getting the agreements in place, committing countries to take the required action, are not good.
On the relationship between gender and the climate emergency, announcements on 9 November saw a host of countries set out gender and climate commitments, including Bolivia, Canada, Ecuador, Germany, Nigeria, Sweden, and the United States.
US Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, leading a delegation of Democrats at the summit, said that climate change is “a threat-multiplier, amplifying and accelerating existing inequalities in our economies and societies.”
The UK announced £165m to tackle climate change specifically addressing inequalities that make women and girls more vulnerable to climate change in developing countries, and empowering them to engage in climate action.
Alok Sharma, COP26 President said that women and girls “are disproportionately impacted… and we cannot allow equality to be a casualty of climate. But women and girls are also leading efforts to tackle climate change in communities around the world.”
Away from gender, to mark Science and Innovation Day, 47 countries came together alongside the Welsh, Scottish, English and Northern Irish health ministers to commit to net zero health services.
NHS Wales is committed to the ambition for the public sector in Wales to be collectively net zero by 2030. Reducing emissions will be part of all new procurement contracts for major suppliers to NHS Wales, and low carbon heating will be used in all NHS Wales new builds with renewable energy being generated on site by 2030.
Wales’ Health Minister Eluned Morgan commented:
“We know how tirelessly our NHS and care staff have worked throughout the pandemic, and that further winter pressures lie ahead. However, the climate emergency has not and will not go away and must be responded to with the same urgency that the pandemic has required of our sector.”
On Wednesday, Boris Johnson returns to Glasgow to ramp up the pressure on negotiators finalising the legally binding documents which will hold countries to their promises. The devil is in the detail.
Reflecting the mood, Alok Sharma said: “What has been collectively committed to goes some way, but certainly not all the way to keeping 1.5C within reach.
“We are making progress…but we still have a mountain to climb over the next few days.”
